Keno Calculator — odds, hit probability & payouts
The exact probability of hitting your numbers on a provably-fair 40-ball Keno board (10 drawn). Pick how many spots you play and see the odds of every hit count, a fairness verifier, and the honest truth about Keno strategy.
For your selected number of spots — the exact chance of hitting each number of them (10 balls drawn from 40):
| Hits | Probability | Odds (1 in N) | Fair* multiplier |
|---|
Provably-fair demonstrator. The 10 drawn numbers are derived from the seeds before the round — the same seeds always draw the same board. Your spots here are numbers 1…N; change the nonce for a new draw.
What is Keno & how to play
Keno is a lottery-style casino game, and on provably-fair crypto casinos like Stake it uses a 40-number board. You choose how many numbers to play — anywhere from 1 to 10 "spots" — then the game draws 10 random numbers. Your payout depends on how many of your chosen numbers are among the drawn ten (your "hits"), and on the risk level you picked. There's nothing to time and no skill in the draw itself: which numbers come out is a fixed, random, provably-fair result. So Keno is pure probability, which is exactly what the calculator above computes. A round in four steps:
- Pick your spots — 1 to 10 numbers on the 40-ball board.
- Choose a risk level (Classic, Low, Medium or High) and your bet.
- Draw. Ten numbers are revealed; count how many match your spots.
- Get paid the multiplier for that number of hits on your risk level.
Keno odds & probability
Keno odds are an exact hypergeometric calculation — no estimates. If you pick k spots and the game draws 10 from 40, the chance of hitting exactly h of them is:
Two things fall straight out of that formula. First, your expected hits are always k × 10 ÷ 40 = k ÷ 4 — pick 8 spots and you'll average 2 hits. Second, hitting all your numbers gets rare fast: hitting all 5 of a 5-spot ticket is about 1 in 2,611, and hitting all 10 of a 10-spot ticket is roughly 1 in 847 million. That's why the biggest Keno multipliers are enormous — the events behind them almost never happen. Open the Odds table tab to see the exact probability of every hit count for your ticket.
Keno risk levels & payouts
The probabilities above are fixed by the board and never change. What each casino controls is the payout table — the multiplier paid for each number of hits — and Stake Keno offers four risk levels that reshape it:
- Classic — the balanced default; modest multipliers, wins on a fairly common number of hits.
- Low — smaller top multipliers but pays on fewer hits, so wins land more often.
- Medium / High — bigger top multipliers concentrated on rare high-hit outcomes, so you win less often but larger.
Whatever risk level you choose, the multipliers are tuned so the game keeps a small house edge (provably-fair Keno typically runs a few percent). Because the edge is baked into the paytable, no risk level has "better odds" than another once you weight it by probability — Low, Medium and High just move the same expected return between frequent-small and rare-large wins. Check the exact multipliers in your casino's paytable; this calculator gives you the underlying probabilities they're built on.
How this Keno calculator works
The calculator uses the exact hypergeometric distribution for a 40-ball, 10-draw board. For your chosen number of spots it computes the probability of every possible hit count, the odds as "1 in N", and the fair (zero-edge) multiplier — simply 1 ÷ the probability of that outcome:
The probabilities are pure combinatorics, so they're correct to the last decimal for any provably-fair 40-ball Keno. Comparing your casino's actual multipliers to the fair ones shows you exactly how much edge each hit count carries.
Can you predict or hack Keno?
No — and it's provable. Each round's 10 numbers are committed cryptographically from the server seed, your client seed and a nonce before the draw. The result is fixed the instant you bet; nothing can change or reveal it early. That means:
- A Keno predictor or "signals" bot can't know numbers that are hashed and hidden — it's guessing with your money, and the edge guarantees it loses over time.
- A Keno hack that promises the next draw is a scam; the numbers are committed and verifiable, not editable.
- There is no pattern, no "hot" or "cold" numbers, and no "due" draw — each round is fully independent and random.
Keno strategy & the honest truth
Keno has one real decision — how many spots to play — and it changes your variance, not your edge. Fewer spots (1–4) hit more predictably for small returns; more spots (8–10) chase rare, huge multipliers you'll mostly miss. Picking "lucky" numbers, chasing numbers that haven't come up, or copying a "system" changes nothing: every number is equally likely every round. The only sound strategy is bankroll management — choose a spot count and risk level that match how much variance you can stomach, and treat the built-in house edge as the price of play. Betting systems like martingale don't beat it; they just speed up the losing streak. Keno is fun and simple, but it's entertainment, not income.
Is Keno rigged? The honest answer
No — but it is not beatable either. Provably-fair Keno lets you recompute the exact ten numbers from the revealed server seed, your client seed and the nonce, confirming they weren't changed after your bet (the Fairness verifier shows the method). What you can't change is the house edge built into the payout table — over the long run you get back a bit less than $1 per $1 wagered. Fair means honest and verifiable, not profitable.
Where to play Keno
Keno runs on almost every crypto casino, from Stake and its Originals to newer provably-fair brands. Wherever you play, the 40-ball odds are identical; only the coins, the bonuses and the exact paytable differ. Before you deposit, confirm that:
- The game is genuinely provably fair — you can see and verify the seeds.
- The paytable is published so you can check the multiplier for each hit count and risk level.
- The site is licensed, reputable and processes crypto deposits and withdrawals quickly.
Whatever crypto casino and Keno site you land on, only play with money you can afford to lose. (Operator links go here.) 18+. Gambling involves risk — play responsibly.